With the way everything has been going for the last two years, the U.S. was withing two to four years of passing amnesty for illegal immigrants under Republican control. I am not suggesting that there was some master plan or that President Trump was engaged in some 4d chess game. Amnesty was not by any means the goal are part of the plan, amnesty would have been passed out of nessessity, no by design.
When ever liberals attempt to convince conservatives to pass amnesty, they bring up President Reagan passed amnesty. When liberals bring this up they often forget that it was part of a deal and Democrats after getting what they wanted refused to uphold their end of the agreement. Further they also forget that during the Reagan years the U.S. was experiencing a massive economic boom with falling unemployment rates. That second played more of a role into why Reagan passed amnesty to begin. Amnesty is not going to be passed just because the Democrats need more voters to replace all the current voters that have abandoned them. Democrats right now are having to depend on the media to gaslight the public and engage in various fraud schemes as it is just to get elected.
With the conservative base’s view on illegal immigration set in stone, there is only one way in which Republicans can get amnesty past without facing the anger of the base. Make no mistake that most of the Republicans in elected office would love to pass amnesty just as much as the Democrats in order to flood the labor market to help keep wages lows and act like a back door for subsidizing labor costs. the question is how to get away with it. This is where the success of President Trump comes in.
Over the last two years under President Trump, the U.S. economy has been booming at a rate we havn’t seen in decades and the jobs reports consistently beat expectations. However, have you ever stopped to ask yourself how with the unemployment rats being as low as it is, how the number of jobs created are able to remain consistently high? This is because we are already resorting to tapping into the reserve workforce to fill jobs right now. The reserve worforce is complrised of people that stoped being counted as unemployed under the Obama administration because they had been unable to find jobs for so long that they gave up and were able to get moved over to disability or perminent welfare. Its the booming economy and the abundance of jobs available now that these people are now re-entering the workforce. What’s encouraging them to re-enter the workforce is that the abundance of jobs also pay more than what they are making on Government assistance which creates the motivation to go back to work.
With the economy as strong as it has been and already tapping into the reserve workforce, how much longer would it take before the U.S. would have started facing a labor shortage. This is where amnesty would have come in, not as the goal but out of economic neccessity to cover the labor shortage. If you’re thinking that illegal immigrants already have jobs as why this maybe wrong, think again. Take a look at California and New York or the few places where there are sanctuary laws. What you’ll find is people leaving these areas and while high taxes may play into the reasoning, another reason for this is a labor surplus (job shortage). Amnesty would have needed to be passed in order to the labor surplus of illegal immigrants to be able to spread out to places experiencing labor shartages.
Now with the Democrats having taken the House of Representatives, the chances of amnesty passing has almost no chances of happening for many resons. Setting aside the politics viewing amnesty as creating new voters that would only bennefit Democrats, but the Democrats have indicated that they plan to use their position in the House to obstruct the Republicans at every turn and run endless investigations into accusations the Democrats have made without a shred of evidence, mostly to distract from the scandals of Obama and the Democrats during the 2016 election cycle.
With the Democrats planned obstructionist plans and baseless attacks they will be engaging in against President Trump, the continued success of the economy is likely to slow down the markets adjust from a stable to unstable political environment. With that in mind that chances that the projected labor shortage will now happen is slim as is the chances amnesty will happen now.